Fireside Chat #15
Nov. 4th was huge for the Democrats. It's up to us to build on it.
The election results from November 4th were excellent for the Democrats, potentially exceeding the best case scenario. The biggest sign of this was in New Jersey, where polling had (D) Sherill at +3.3 and the results turned out to be +13. Not only did the big four (NY mayor, NJ and VA governor, and CA Prop 50 go Democrat, but you’ll find Democratic wins everywhere. Virginia Democrats expanded their control in the Virginia House of Delegates and New Jersey Democrats gained a supermajority in the New Jersey General Assembly. Pennsylvania retained their three state Supreme Court justices. Mississippi Democrats broke the GOP supermajority. It was a great night.
Its up to all of us to keep building from here. I want to keep pressing the point that each of your voices and your votes matter more than you think, and that you should keep using it to talk with friends, families, and your communities because that’s how we build a better America for all of us.
I wanted to share some exit polls that I think are important from Nov. 4th. You should take these with a grain of salt in general, but at the same time, political strategists use data like this to determine what policies to run and which candidates to run next time. This is one of the reason why every vote matters, everywhere. Our political parties break down every piece of data they can to adjust how electable they are for the next election.
The 2024 Trump Coalition may be evaporating
My takeaway from the New Jersey election: Non-white voters that Trump used to build his coalition in 2024 may have evaporated.
Black Women - 95% voted for Sherill,
Black Men - 92% voted for Sherill,
Latino Women - 73% voted for Sherill,
Latino Men - 61% voted for Sherill,
Its not necessarily what it used to be for Latinos, but its a definitely trending away from the GOP.
My takeaway from the NYC Mayor election: Young voters.
18-24- 77% for Mamdani,
25-29 - 79% for Mamdani,
30-39 - 68% for Mamdani,
Some of Trumps biggest gains came off of adding the Hispanic vote and the Gen Z vote in 2024. While these results aren’t a national election, those underlying themes of some underlying and irrecoverable trend towards the right look to be wildly off base now.
Post-shutdown narrative and beyond
The relief of an election that was run without major interference and the results that showed that Americans are willing and able to send a rebuke to the Trump administration was big news on November 4th. An opposition party was finally starting to take shape and gain some momentum.
Then Senate Democrats agreed to terms that the GOP was offering weeks ago to end the shutdown. It seemed like all of the momentum of the previous week popped like a balloon. The Democrats once again caved. And the Doom was back.
24 hours later, new details were released regarding Trump’s connection to Epstein, and just like that, a new narrative forms.
This is one of the dangers of online news and politics today. It is, by design, an emotional roller coaster of wins and losses that is exhausting to follow. It provides enthusiasm, doomerism, and distraction all too quickly. It makes it hard to concentrate on what is actually important, what isn’t, and what we can do about it. It is one of the goals of the New Deal Party to highlight these problems and what you can do to shield yourself from a 24 hour news and a ravenous social media machine. When we can put aside the day-to-day distractions and focus on building something that will last, we can get back to building a nation that works for the people.
Updates
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